Reporting from Likud headquarters on Israeli election night, Avi Abelow explains why nobody should believe the headlines declaring Benjamin Netanyahu defeated.

Israel’s mainstream television channels—Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13—released exit polls projecting a dramatic setback for Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc. His political opponents immediately began celebrating.

But Channel 14’s Shlomo “Momo” Filber presented a radically different projection. His initial exit poll gave Netanyahu’s bloc 60 seats.

That enormous discrepancy demonstrates why exit polls are not election results.